A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
